Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Breaking Down Your Sportsbooks Futures

Futures are the easiest way for a sportsbook to rip you off without you even knowing it.It all looks fine and dandy +1200 or +2000 but in reality your book is holding anywhere from 30-100 percent in added juice. The average straight bet only includes 4.5 percent juice and on futures they are bumping it astronomical heights. Generally a rule of thumb in the sportsbook world is to hold 1% per selection on solid futures and to bump that up to 2% or 3% on Futures with less teams or those which are complelty unpredictable. So for example To Win this years superbowl there are 30 teams multiply that by the 1% because this would be considered a solid future your book should only be holding 30 percent. One sportbook that comes to mind when talking about futures and being ripped off is www.thegreek.com . Take a look for example at thier odds to win the Big 12 for this upcoming football season, they have gone and included 84 percent juice on a contest with only 12 selections. Even if you are to use the absolute highest multiplier of 3% you should still only come up with 36%. Now I'm sure you are all wondering how do I figure out how much my book is holding? Its quite simple actually here is a chart of how it all works and an explanation on how to use the chart below.

-10000 = 99
-8000 = 98
-4000 = 97
-2500 = 96
-2000 = 95
-1500 = 94
-1000 = 91
-750 = 88
-500 = 83
-400 = 80
-300 = 75
-250 = 71
-200= 66
-150 = 60
+100 = 50
+150 = 40
+200 = 33
+250 = 28
+300 = 25
+400 = 20
+500 = 16
+750 = 12
+1000 = 9
+1500 = 6
+2000 = 5
+2500 = 4
+3000 = 3
+4000 = 2
+5000 = 2
+7500 = 1
+10000 = 1
+15000 = 0.6
+20000 = 0.5

Now for how this chart works. Lets break down the ridiculos Future that thegreek is using on the Big 12.

Baylor +2000 = 5
Colorado +1500 = 6
Iowa State +7500 =1
Kansas +250 = 28
Kansas State +3000 = 3
Missouri +800 = 11
Nebraska +250 = 28
Oklahoma +150 = 40
Oklahoma State +800 = 11
Texas +150 = 40
Texas A&M +3000 = 3
Texas Tech +1200 = 8

Now what you have to do is add up the numbers that are assaigned to the ML. If you add up the entire right column you come up with 184. The first 100 is the sportsbook breaking even obviously they are not going to do that so anything over is considered the juice, and as you can see here thegreek is including 84% juice into something that should have anywhere from 24-36. This is something you need to be really careful of before considering placing a bet on a prop like this, or you are just playing right into the sportsbooks fingers. I suggest looking for a sportsbook that uses appropriate juice to increase your chances of winning.

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